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Visual Thinking

Pandemics follow patterns

Pandemics follow patterns. Intervening at an early stage is always best.

What happens in the worst case of a pandemic. The included information mural shows that.

Robert E. Horn – 2005

It is based on the results of a PanDefense 1.0 conference in November 2005 about the potential destructiveness of the Avian flu.

With the help of epidemiologists, my friend Bob Horn created the information mural shown here.

The aim was to provide a detailed and urgent picture of the worst case like during the first 12 months of a pandemic.

The goal of the conference was to take a multi-disciplinary approach to finding a small number of achievable interventions, assuming H5N1 flu virus becomes an efficient human transmitter and pathogen, and before there is a sufficient quantity of either an effective vaccine or antiviral.

Though it is more than fourteen years old, there are striking similarities with the current corona crisis.

Obviously, intervening early on has a greater opportunity to halt the spread of the virus. Especially for those governments that are still in denial, take a good look and help us avoid the worst case.